Armenia’s relationship with Russia can no longer be described with one simple word: friend or enemy. For Armenia, Russia has been an ally, a security guarantor, a market, an energy provider, and a military factor. But it has also been the power that failed to act in the way many Armenians expected during the most painful moments of recent history.
During the 2020 war and especially after the events of 2023, many Armenians asked the same question: if Russia was an ally, why did it not stop the catastrophe? Moscow often pointed to the fact that Nagorno-Karabakh was not internationally recognized as Armenian territory. After the 2023 Azerbaijani offensive and the exodus of Armenians from Artsakh, Yerevan increasingly described the old security model as failed. Pashinyan later called reliance on Russia alone a “strategic mistake,” and Armenia effectively froze its participation in the CSTO.
But the painful truth is this: Russia did not fail to intervene only because of Pashinyan. Russia made a political calculation. Armenia matters to Moscow, but not enough for Russia to risk direct confrontation with Azerbaijan and Turkey, especially after the war in Ukraine. That is cynical, but this is how major powers behave: they defend interests, not emotions.
If Pashinyan is such a problem for Russia, why does Moscow not simply “stop” him? Because direct intervention would be costly. It could damage Russia’s image, trigger the opposite reaction in Armenian society, and push the country even faster toward the West. So Moscow uses other tools: pressure, economic signals, media influence, gas pricing, market restrictions, and support for political forces closer to its worldview.
The most sensitive lever is gas. Reuters reported that Russia warned Armenia it could lose preferential supplies of oil, gas, and other goods if Yerevan continues moving toward the EU. The Kremlin has also suggested that cheap gas is tied to allied integration formats and may not remain unchanged if Armenia turns away from Moscow.
And this is where the real issue begins: Pashinyan will not be the one to suffer first. Citizens will. If gas prices rise, it will not only affect utility bills. Bread, transport, production, services, heating, and logistics will all become more expensive. In a small economy, gas is not just a pipeline — it is a chain of prices running through everyday life.
Russia is effectively telling Armenia: if you want to move toward Europe, pay the European price. Armenia must now ask itself honestly: is the country ready for that price? Does it have alternative energy sources? Does it have a real plan to protect families and businesses? Or will the government once again turn geopolitics into a beautiful slogan while ordinary people receive the bill?
Russia is not an enemy in the classic sense. But it is not a selfless friend either. It is an imperial partner: it helps when you remain inside its system, and punishes when you try to leave it. That is not morality. It is a mechanism.
Pashinyan’s problem is not only that he damages relations with Russia. The deeper problem is that he does so without clearly preparing the country for the consequences. One cannot loudly move westward while energy, markets, security habits, and millions of human ties remain tied to Russia. That is not courage. It is a national risk.
But returning fully to Russia’s orbit will not solve the problem either. The years 2020 and 2023 already showed that dependence on a single power does not guarantee salvation. Armenia must neither worship Russia nor declare it an eternal enemy. It needs cold, calculated statecraft: less dependence, more alternatives, fewer slogans, and more protection for citizens.
The real question is not “Is Russia a friend or an enemy?”
The real question is whether Armenia has a government capable of speaking to Russia not as a beggar, to the West not as a naïve student, and to its own people honestly.
Because if the price of another mistake is once again passed on to citizens, then it will not be one politician who suffers. It will be the whole country.
By Lida Nalbandyan, Founder and CEO of Octopus Media Group