No More Emotions. People Want Clarity.
After the traumas of 2020 and 2023, Armenian society has grown more demanding of those in power — but also more skeptical of the opposition.
The past no longer inspires. Promises no longer persuade.
People are tired.
People are sharper.
And people are looking for clear plans, not beautiful speeches.
Whoever delivers that — wins.
What the Numbers Say
According to the latest independent polls — including data I’ve had access to as a researcher — over 42% of voters are still undecided. That’s a record-high figure.
Meanwhile:
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The ruling party (Civil Contract) holds a stable but fatigued base — around 18–21%.
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Radical opposition movements retain 10–12%, but have hit a ceiling.
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New and regional initiatives gather 5–9% — promising but fragmented.
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The diaspora remains vocal online, but marginal in offline mobilization.
This means that any party able to articulate a concrete, modern, and social vision could grab up to 30% of the vote.
The Political Field
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Civil Contract (Pashinyan’s party)
Strong structure and administrative support. But it has lost momentum and the support of the urban middle class. Leans on the narrative of "stability", but lacks an inspiring future vision. -
Traditional Opposition (Kocharyan, Sargsyan, ARF)
Even their own base is tired. Their campaign will rely on fear and nostalgia. But without new ideas and faces, they risk sinking into irrelevance. -
Regional and Centrist Initiatives
Some of them are genuine movements focused on education, villages, and practical reforms. With proper communication and media presence, they can win 5–7 seats. -
Media-born or Civil-based Startups
New efforts are being made to build parties around successful platforms or civic activism. If they manage to unite their audiences, they might surprise everyone.
What Does the Voter Want?
“I don’t care who you fight against. I care what you will do to feed, educate, and protect my children.” — A woman, 39, Gyumri
Today’s Armenian voter:
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Seeks practical solutions, not slogans
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Distrusts geopolitical "saviors"
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Demands honest faces and transparent plans
This is not a vote between East and West.
It is a vote between emptiness and substanc
Three Scenarios for 2026
1. Stability Through Control
The ruling party retains control thanks to divided opposition and admin leverage.
➡ Predictable outcome, but growing discontent.
2. Fragmented Parliament
No majority emerges. 5–6 factions form an unstable coalition.
➡ Risk or opportunity — depends on political maturity.
3. Surprise Start-Up
A new civic or digital movement mobilizes undecided voters.
➡ Could reshape not only seats, but political culture.
Key Risks
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Voter Apathy
If turnout drops below 45%, the results may not reflect real public will — and this can fuel crisis. -
Disinformation Warfare
We expect an avalanche of fake news, bots, and targeted manipulation — especially via TikTok and Telegram. -
External Interference
Foreign actors may try to shape the field — through statements or proxies.
Final Word
"This election won’t be between candidates. It will be between resignation — and responsibility."
In 2026, Armenia needs more than a new government.
It needs a new conversation with its citizens.
A parliament that works.
Parties that respect people.
And a society that votes not out of fear — but out of hope.
We still have that chance.
Let’s not waste it.
By Lida Nalbandyan, Founder and CEO of Octopus Media Group