On June 21, 2025, the United States launched a series of missile strikes on Iranian territory. According to official statements, the action was a response to threats from Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, and concerns about new attacks on American positions. But beneath the surface, this incident reveals a much deeper and far more dangerous reality.
Context: Approaching the Boiling Point
U.S.–Iranian tensions have been building for years.
Since Washington withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear deal in 2018, relations have deteriorated sharply. Iran’s regional actions — support for Hezbollah, involvement in the Yemeni conflict, cyberattacks, and growing ties with Russia since 2022 — have made direct confrontation only a matter of time.
With U.S. influence being challenged globally and power shifting toward a Eurasian axis, Washington decided it could not afford to delay.
Why Now?
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Domestic Politics:
The U.S. is entering an election cycle. Military toughness plays well with certain voter bases. -
Reassuring Gulf Allies:
After Tehran’s closer alignment with Russia and China, the U.S. wants to reassert dominance in the Persian Gulf. -
Preemptive Strategy:
Washington suspects Iran is advancing nuclear infrastructure and coordinating regional threats. A strike is seen as a message: “We are watching — and willing to act.”
Iran’s Likely Response
Iran cannot remain silent. Its regime’s legitimacy is tied to resistance.
Possible actions include:
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Missile attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq, Bahrain, or Qatar
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Proxy warfare via Hezbollah, the Houthis, or Iraqi groups
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Disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, risking global oil supply chaos
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Cyber warfare targeting U.S. infrastructure or financial systems
Regional Consequences — Including for Armenia
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Escalation into a regional war, involving Israel, Turkey, and the Gulf States
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Oil and gas price shock, destabilizing global markets
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Iran’s full integration with Russia and China — forming a stronger anti-Western bloc
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Security risks for Armenia’s southern border and the Syunik corridor
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Armenia’s geopolitical relevance may increase, especially if it maintains neutrality and offers regional mediation or transit capacity
Global Implications
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Collapse of all hopes for nuclear diplomacy
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New arms race in the Middle East
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Clear division of the world — West vs. Eurasian axis (Russia–Iran–China)
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Rise of asymmetric retaliation — from cyberattacks to economic sabotage
Conclusion
This U.S. strike is not mere retaliation — it is a deliberate move on the global chessboard.
Whether it sparks a wider war or remains a controlled escalation depends on what comes next.
But one thing is clear: the world is once again moving toward a logic of force over diplomacy.
And countries like Armenia must navigate this storm with caution, strength, and strategy.
By Lida Nalbandyan, Founder and CEO of Octopus Media Group