It has been two months since prominent Armenian businessman and philanthropist Samvel Karapetyan was arrested. Tomorrow a court will decide whether to extend his detention or replace it with a softer measure. In the meantime, the case has evolved into a wider context: the state is consolidating control over strategic infrastructure, debates continue over the ownership and governance of Armenian Electric Networks, and Karapetyan’s allies have announced plans to launch a new political force.
Below is a sober analysis of what happened, what is at stake, and what comes next.
1) What is firm and what is contested
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Legal track. The charges are formally economic in nature. The investigation is largely closed; public leaks are contradictory.
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Control over assets. Public reporting points to increased state leverage over key utilities and energy. The legal status of ownership often hinges on complex corporate chains and regulatory decisions.
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Political subtext. The arrest coincides with a period of tighter control over big capital, media, and traditional influence-holders (Church, diaspora, philanthropy), fueling perceptions of political motivation.
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New political team. Statements from Karapetyan’s circle about forming a new political force signal to elites and society that the current order is not monopolistic and that a “big business + social contract” platform could become a systemic alternative.
Note: Some claims about the transfer/seizure of assets and behind-the-scenes arrangements cannot be publicly verified at this time. The analysis blends public information, sector logic, and regional context.
2) Why this case became a focal point
Scale and symbolism. Karapetyan is not just capital; he’s linked to infrastructure, diaspora networks, Artsakh-related philanthropy.
Re-mapping power. The case is read as part of a centralization drive: reducing the autonomy of influential private actors with social legitimacy outside the political vertical.
Signal to business and diaspora. The implicit message: you can play, but the rules are one-way—and they are not yours.
3) Energy and Armenian Electric Networks: where economics meets politics
Energy is a sovereign nerve system. Any shift—formal or de facto—in control over grids/generation instantly turns political.
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For the government: tariff stability, risk management, social control.
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For private owners: capitalization, long-term investment, international obligations.
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For society: reliability, price, transparency.
The key medium-term risk is investor confidence: if criminal prosecution and asset re-allocation appear correlated, the country’s risk premium rises for years.
4) Political bid: what Karapetyan’s team could offer
Judging by signals, the core is pragmatism + infrastructure + social contract:
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Conservative values + modernization: support for traditional institutions (Church, community) coupled with managerial efficiency, investment, jobs.
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Infrastructure patriotism: grids, water, roads, smart city services as a mobilizing platform instead of abstract ideology.
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Diaspora as a shareholder: mobilizing external capital/know-how with safeguards against political arbitrariness (compliance, independent oversight, public KPIs).
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Zero rent tolerance: shifting conflicts of interest from phone calls to contracts, regulation, courts—exactly what SMEs demand.
If articulated clearly and credibly, this could yield a new coalition: urban professionals + SMEs + a share of traditionalist voters.
5) Tomorrow’s court fork: three scenarios
A — Detention Extended
Short term:
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Sharper street/media polarization;
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Team pivots from “social contract” to “political prisoner” rhetoric.
Medium term: -
Higher international scrutiny;
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Investment chill—projects go “on hold.”
B — Softer Measure (house arrest/bail)
Short term:
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De-escalation; window for positive agenda;
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Government signals commitment to legal process over raw power.
Medium term: -
Conflict shifts to political-electoral arena;
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Lower reputational damage externally.
C — Release
Short term:
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Strong momentum for the new force;
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Loud debate over the merits of the case.
Medium term: -
Potential polling gains;
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A broader debate on rules for capital and politics.
6) What each side should do now
Government:
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Separate procedure from politics: publish a timeline, steps, criteria;
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On assets—go maximum transparency: regulatory rationale, stress tests, audits.
Karapetyan’s team:
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Move from emotion to a contract agenda: a 10–12 point program with measurable KPIs;
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Roll out a public compliance package: independent audit, disclosures, conflict-of-interest firewall.
Society & business:
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Demand rules: predictable justice, clear regulation, protection from arbitrariness;
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Support initiatives where money → infrastructure → jobs, not political rents.
7) Conclusion
The Karapetyan case is a stress test for Armenia:
Are we building a rule-of-law system, or simply redistributing influence by force?
Tomorrow’s court decision is more than a legal milestone—it’s a referendum on whether our institutions can withstand pressure, stay lawful, and open the arena to genuine political competition without demolishing the economy and trust.
If the answer is “yes,” Armenia gets a chance at a new chapter where a strong economy, a real social contract, and national values reinforce—not cancel—each other.
By Lida Nalbandyan, Founder and CEO of Octopus Media Group