It is rare to see billionaires jailed. Rarer still to see two Armenians among them.
Samvel Karapetyan has been in pre-trial detention in Yerevan for months on charges of “public calls to seize power”; courts have denied bail and extended custody.
Ruben Vardanyan has been held in Baku since September 2023; proceedings are largely closed, with his team alleging torture and due-process violations.
Adding to the shock, Archbishop Mikael Ajapakhyan was sentenced to two years in prison for public calls to overthrow the government — a ruling condemned by his lawyers and criticized by the Church.
Together, these cases signal a crisis of institutional trust. Here is what is happening, how long it may last, and a 10-step exit plan.
What we know (facts & context)
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Karapetyan: arrested June 18, 2025; bail denied; detention extended. Charge: public calls to usurp power. Defense says the case is politically motivated.
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Vardanyan: taken by Azerbaijan on Sept 27, 2023 near the Hakari bridge; still in Baku prison; closed proceedings and reported abuses.
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Ajapakhyan: sentenced to two years; conviction under article on public calls to usurp power; defense calls it political.
Why this became possible
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Due-process erosion (detention as default rather than last resort).
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Politicization of justice at home and abroad (neighbors weaponize courts).
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Business–politics collision resolved by power, not contracts.
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Communication vacuum that breeds rumor and radicalization.
The national cost
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Higher risk premium, paused projects, costlier credit.
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Diaspora hesitation — “money and names aren’t safe here.”
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Social polarization and distrust of courts.
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Weaker bargaining power internationally.
How long will it last?
As long as institutions and incentives allow.
Domestic cases can drag on months or years without procedural discipline; the external case is political currency for Baku unless a cost-of-non-compliance is built.
A 10-step way out
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Detention = last resort with 30-day judicial reviews.
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Process transparency: hearing calendars, milestone releases.
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Independent review board on high-profile cases.
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Humanitarian diplomacy: ICRC/UN procedures for access, health, family contact.
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Cost-of-violation mechanism with partners (targeted visa/financial steps).
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Mediator coalition to guarantee exchanges/transfers/releases.
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Lex Armenia legal fund for independent counsel & compliance.
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Investment sanctity pact (no asset action without court & public audit).
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Monthly MoJ/Prosecutor briefings with KPIs.
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Diaspora Trust Board of eminent lawyers/economists.
The payoff
Less domestic toxicity, stronger leverage abroad, returning trust of business and diaspora, and — above all — dignity restored: courts deciding fates, not power plays.
Conclusion
The cases of Karapetyan, Vardanyan, and Archbishop Ajapakhyan are a stress test for Armenia.
The cure is not loud rhetoric but procedures, transparency, and a humanitarian pressure coalition.
Only then will Armenia stop apologizing for headlines — and start proving that the rule of law is our national backbone.
By Lida Nalbandyan, Founder and CEO of Octopus Media Group