Armenia today is a country that is simultaneously leaving and staying. Leaving — in rhetoric, diplomacy, and the language of future alliances. Staying — in the hard realities of security infrastructure, economic ties, and the legacy of dependence that cannot be undone overnight.
This is why many people call it “a political game.” The speeches are bold, but the foundations remain heavy.
Europe: not romance — procedures and commitments
Europe moves through mechanisms, not emotions.
A key fact is that the EU and Armenia launched a visa liberalisation dialogue on 9 September 2024, later formalised through an Action Plan detailing requirements and reforms.
Another fact: in July 2024, the EU adopted its first-ever European Peace Facility assistance measure for Armenia — €10 million focused on improving logistical capabilities. Symbolically, the EU is cautiously stepping into security-related cooperation.
By late 2025, both sides publicly framed cooperation within a broader EU–Armenia Strategic Agenda, including resilience and security-related elements.
In plain terms: Europe is offering a long contract of transformation — institutions, governance, mobility, standards — not an overnight security umbrella.
The United States: partnership as a toolkit, not a guarantee
The U.S. track is structured around practical cooperation.
In January 2025, Armenia and the United States published a Charter on Strategic Partnership, outlining cooperation areas including democratic governance, anti-corruption efforts, economic development, and security-related cooperation.
Earlier, in June 2024, the U.S. State Department’s strategic dialogue “capstone” statement also reaffirmed intentions to deepen ties.
In human terms: Washington can strengthen Armenia institutionally and politically, but it does not automatically replace Russia as a direct security guarantor.
Turkey: normalisation as a corridor into a new regional reality
The Turkey track is both opportunity and anxiety.
Open-source reporting shows continued talk of normalisation and expectations for more concrete steps, with signals about symbolic moves from 2026.
or Armenia, however, Turkey is not a “normal neighbour.” It is history, trauma, and current geopolitics — especially Turkey’s close alignment with Azerbaijan — making normalisation a high-stakes process.
Russia: influence may shrink — dependence still exists
Here lies the core contradiction between “direction” and “reality.”
International reporting notes Armenia’s freezing of engagement with the CSTO and a broader distancing from Russian-led security mechanisms.
Yet Russia’s military footprint remains — including the base in Gyumri, with long-term arrangements discussed publicly as extending far into the future.
So the formula is: political trust has weakened, but the legacy infrastructure and multiple ties remain difficult to unwind quickly.
So is it a pivot — or a political game?
It is neither a clean geopolitical “switch” nor pure theatre. It is a hybrid strategy driven by hard constraints:
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the old security guarantor is no longer trusted as before,
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new partners offer tools but not instant military guarantees,
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regional architecture is changing through pressure and negotiations,
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society demands security, dignity, and justice — simultaneously.
In such conditions, diplomacy inevitably looks like “gameplay”: the EU track for reforms and mobility, the U.S. track for strategic partnership, the Turkey track for connectivity, and the Russia track for damage control and stability.
The most realistic scenario
The most realistic near-term outcome is not a full “orbit change,” but reducing mono-dependence:
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deeper EU engagement through visa liberalisation and reforms,
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expanded U.S. cooperation through practical programs and political backing,
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cautious dialogue with Turkey to reduce regional risks,
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and a slow, constrained reconfiguration of Russia’s role rather than a sudden break.
Ultimately, the decisive question is not “where Armenia is going,” but whether Armenia can act as a sovereign subject with a coherent internal strategy — because without that, every external vector becomes someone else’s game.
By Lida Nalbandyan, Founder and CEO of Octopus Media Group