Before elections, a country often feels like a home under renovation: fresh paint on the walls, old wiring behind them. People don’t ask “who wins,” they ask “will the lights work tomorrow?” — roads, tariffs, security, courts. Here is a sober, human-centered look at who’s running, how they compete, where their strengths and weaknesses lie, and what will actually decide the outcome.
1) The field
Civil Contract (PM Nikol Pashinyan’s party)
Strengths: organization, name recognition, local networks, agenda control.
Weaknesses: voter fatigue, responsibility for crises and painful decisions, trust deficit in institutions.
Playbook: “stability via peace and reform,” infrastructure, EU track, border/army modernization.
Traditional opposition (ex-elites and their allies)
Strengths: media presence, solid cores, field experience.
Weaknesses: high negatives, corruption baggage, no credible future story.
Playbook: “security and dignity,” hard criticism, appeal to loss and justice.
New technocratic projects (business/diaspora/mayoral teams)
Strengths: managerial capacity, competence, “contract for results.”
Weaknesses: short history, legal/administrative risks, shortage of public faces.
Playbook: “100 days — 10 deliverables”: tariffs, roads, water, waste, SMEs, clean tenders, transparent KPIs.
Small parties & civic platforms
Strengths: ideological clarity, niche issues (education, ecology, urban life).
Weaknesses: entry threshold, limited resources.
Playbook: coalitions, strong local candidates, digital-first.
2) What the election is really about
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Security & peace with concrete red lines and border protection, not slogans.
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Kitchen-table economics: tariffs, regional jobs, SME credit, visible public services.
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Justice as an impartial arbiter, not an agenda weapon.
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Identity & Church: respect, not culture wars.
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Foreign policy balance without rhetorical crusades.
3) The voters who decide
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Quiet urban professionals — they want services and predictability.
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Border & industrial regions — jobs, roads, protection, farm insurance.
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Traditionalists — respect for Church/family + order.
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Diaspora effect — indirect, via investments, media, endorsements.
The winner is the one who converts the undecided and reduces abstention, not the one who shouts louder.
4) What works in 2025–2026
Door-to-door in regions + digital maps of neighborhood problems → quick fixes before election;
visual open budgets (“where 100 drams go”);
KPI contracts (10 promises for 100 days with public tracking);
independent debates with fact tables;
clean lists (vet toxic figures early).
5) Chances (qualitative, scenario-based)
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Incumbents remain favorites on structure and recognition if they keep the middle voter and avoid perceptions of selective justice.
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Traditional opposition keeps its core but hits a ceiling unless it fields new faces and a concrete program.
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New technocrats are the wild card: with a credible leader and coalitions they can become a balancing force — even contend in major cities.
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Smaller parties can hold the kingmaker role via blocs.
6) Three plausible outcomes
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Stable majority for incumbents
If security holds, tone is moderate, and a few quick service wins appear.
Outcome: continued peace track, infrastructure focus, selective judicial fixes. -
Coalition parliament (technocrats + small parties + parts of the opposition)
If a credible managerial leader emerges, with a “100 days/10 deliverables” pact.
Outcome: stronger oversight, pragmatic bargain. -
Polarization & short memory
If scandals and selective justice dominate.
Outcome: low turnout, fragile legitimacy, tough governing.
7) What to watch (data, not rumors)
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Who names a PM candidate and a cabinet-in-waiting.
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Who publishes a 100-day plan with metrics, not a slideshow.
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Who opens regional offices and fixes neighborhood issues before the vote.
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How both sides act in high-profile cases (procedure > slogans).
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Whether there is respectful dialogue with the Church and the diaspora.
Bottom line: These elections won’t be decided by history but by credible plans for tomorrow. The winner is the one who shows how Armenia can live safer, fairer, and better — starting on day one.
By Lida Nalbandyan, Founder and CEO of Octopus Media Group