The 2026 parliamentary elections in Armenia will be pivotal. If Nikol Pashinyan and his “Civil Contract” party secure another term, the country won’t just see a continuation of the current policies — it will see their institutionalization. But the crucial question remains: What will Armenia face if Pashinyan stays in power for another 5 years?
1. Consolidation of Personal Power
Since 2018, Pashinyan has transitioned from a revolutionary leader to a centralized ruler. Surrounding himself with loyal figures, he has effectively neutralized political competition.
If re-elected:
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More centralization of executive power.
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Continued erosion of judicial independence.
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Total dominance of party-loyal cadres in government institutions.
2. The Karabakh Question and Foreign Policy
Under Pashinyan, Armenia has effectively given up its historical responsibility for Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh). Refugees remain neglected, and all signs point toward full disengagement.
What to expect?
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A peace treaty with Azerbaijan that erases any mention of Artsakh.
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Opening of the "Zangezur corridor" under Azerbaijani terms.
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Further weakening of ties with Russia in favor of a Western alignment.
3. Socio-Economic Fragility
While government rhetoric speaks of development, the reality is rising poverty, mass emigration, and investment hesitation.
If re-elected:
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Continuation of infrastructure projects funded by debt.
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Tighter tax regimes targeting small and mid-sized businesses.
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Over-reliance on IT and tourism as showcases without structural support.
4. Education, Army, Healthcare — Reforms or Ruin?
Education: The Ministry, led by Zhanna Andreasyan, faces criticism for eroding national identity.
Army: Still in crisis after the 2020 and 2023 wars.
Healthcare: Increasing privatization and poor public access.
Pashinyan’s likely path:
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Westernization of curriculum, sidelining Armenian heritage.
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Transition to a professional, Western-style military.
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Privatization of medical care and diminishing state role.
5. Ideological and Cultural Divide
The most dangerous outcome could be the irreversible polarization of Armenian society.
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Breakdown of trust between people and the state.
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Loss of national cohesion and historical continuity.
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Growing apathy and cynicism across generations.
Conclusion: A One-Way Road?
A 2026 victory for Nikol Pashinyan will symbolize not just continuity, but entrenchment of a new kind of leadership — one devoid of ideology, national vision, or responsibility. Armenia may be heading into an era of deep internal transformation, where traditional pillars such as the army, village, church, and national spirit are sidelined in favor of a technocratic elite disconnected from the soul of the nation.
By Lida Nalbandyan, Founder and CEO of Octopus Media Group