The escalating military confrontation between Iran and Israel is no longer a distant regional affair — it now casts a long shadow over the South Caucasus. For Armenia, a landlocked state surrounded by hostile or unstable neighbors, this growing tension carries significant risks: from geopolitical isolation to potential involvement in a proxy war.
Iran — Armenia’s Last Strategic Window
Since the blockade by Turkey and Azerbaijan, Iran has remained Armenia’s only open route to the south — both in trade and diplomacy. A military conflict near the Iranian-Armenian border, especially around the Syunik region, could disrupt this fragile corridor. Closure of borders, suspension of cargo transit, and even military spillover are no longer far-fetched scenarios.
Armenia’s Dangerous Geopolitical Crossroads
Armenia is not a central player in the Iran-Israel conflict, but it sits at a geopolitical fault line. Azerbaijan, Armenia’s adversary, has developed extensive military and intelligence ties with Israel, receiving advanced weaponry. Iran, meanwhile, has often positioned itself as a counterweight to Turkish-Azerbaijani ambitions in the region.
If Israel-Iran tensions escalate, Armenia may find itself pressured — implicitly or explicitly — to limit its cooperation with either side. Iran may demand diplomatic restrictions, while Israel may push its regional partners for passive alignment.
Internal Security Risks
Beyond external threats, the conflict may bring internal instability. A weakened Iran could trigger a wave of refugee movement toward Armenia, especially among Iranian-Armenians. At the same time, destabilized borders may enable extremist infiltration or regional trafficking, threatening local security.
Economic Fallout
Iran is not only a political buffer but also an economic lifeline. Sanctions or military disruptions could halt energy supplies and trade routes that Armenia relies on. Losing Iran as a trade partner would leave Armenia more isolated and more dependent on Georgia or Russia — both with their own limitations.
Final Thoughts
Armenia today stands at a dangerous crossroads. The country must defend its neutrality, while also safeguarding its interests and alliances. In moments like these, reactive policy is a luxury we cannot afford. Strategic foresight and diplomatic agility must guide Armenia's next moves. If not, the fallout of a distant war may land squarely on Armenian soil.
By Lida Nalbandyan, Founder and CEO of Octopus Media Group