Introduction: From Allies to Adversaries
For years, Russia and Azerbaijan maintained a façade of strategic partnership. Moscow supplied Baku with arms and energy while Baku played its classic “multi-vector” game — balancing between Russia, Turkey, and the West.
But since 2020, and especially in 2024–2025, it has become clear: Azerbaijan does not respect Russia — it uses her.
And the Kremlin has started to notice.
What Triggered the Current Escalation?
1. The Withdrawal of Russian Peacekeepers from Artsakh (2024)
Following the ethnic cleansing of Armenians from Artsakh, Russian peacekeepers were not only sidelined — they were humiliated. Their withdrawal marked a silent collapse of Russian prestige in the region.
2. Azerbaijan’s Strategic Pivot to the West
President Aliyev is deepening ties with the UK, Israel, NATO, and the EU. Azerbaijan is becoming a Western transport and intelligence corridor — directed at both Iran and Russia.
3. Anti-Russian Rhetoric in Baku
Azerbaijani media and officials have escalated hostile messaging toward Moscow, including direct criticism of Russian military and political actions.
4. Suppression of Russian Media and Influence
Russian outlets were banned in Azerbaijan in 2024. Journalists expelled.
A clear message of sovereignty — and defiance.
5. Sabotage of Russian-Linked Transport Projects
Azerbaijan is reportedly stalling critical routes within the North-South Corridor, which is vital to Russian trade.
What Does Russia Want?
Russia has lost ground in the South Caucasus — and it wants it back.
Its goals include:
• Preventing NATO expansion via Georgia and Azerbaijan
• Controlling energy and trade flows to the West
• Reasserting military presence in the region
• Using Azerbaijan as leverage against Turkey
• Keeping Armenia within its sphere of influence
Possible Outcomes and Scenarios
1. Hybrid Retaliation
Russia won’t declare war. It will act through:
• Cyberattacks
• Disinformation campaigns
• Sanctions
• Economic sabotage of Azerbaijani transit
2. Support via Iran
Moscow may enable Iran’s influence in the Caucasus — sending arms, intelligence, or simply coordinating anti-Baku pressure.
3. Destabilization from Within
Russia has options to exploit ethnic and sectarian vulnerabilities inside Azerbaijan. This possibility is increasingly discussed in Russian policy circles.
4. Sabotaging Caspian Trade Corridors
Moscow could obstruct Western-led infrastructure through diplomatic and covert action.
5. Proxy Strikes
Rather than act directly, Russia may “punish” Azerbaijan via third parties — Iran, Armenia, or separatist elements near Dagestan.
Will Russia Strike Back?
Yes. But not today — and not directly.
The Kremlin plays a long game. Baku has crossed multiple red lines. Now, it’s only a matter of when and how Russia retaliates — not if.
What This Means for Armenia
• Armenia could become a stage for geopolitical revenge — even against its will
• Pressure on the region will intensify
• Yerevan might briefly regain leverage by balancing between Russia and Iran
• But it must avoid becoming collateral in a great power struggle
Conclusion
Azerbaijan has crossed the line. Russia is silent — but it does not forget.
When the Kremlin acts, it will strike at the heart of Baku’s power: its economy, trade corridors, and regime stability.
The game has changed. And this time, Moscow won’t just watch from the sidelines.
By Lida Nalbandyan, Founder and CEO of Octopus Media Group